**************************** Multinomial Regression **************************** ** Regression Results ** Valid Number of Cases: 54, 0 Omitted Dependent Variable: Period Base Category: 1 * omitted due to multicollinearity | Coefficient Standard Error Wald Statistic Significance -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| 3.8133 1.7428 4.7874 0.0287 Score| -0.0818 0.0358 5.2104 0.0225 Noise = High| 0.4319 0.7490 0.3325 0.5642 -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Noise = Low| * Score| -0.1924 0.0503 14.6346 0.0001 Noise = High| 1.1811 0.9236 1.6352 0.2010 | 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 | Lower 95% Upper 95% -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| 0.3974 7.2292 Score| -0.1519 -0.0116 Noise = High| -1.0362 1.8999 -------------------+------------------------------ Noise = Low| Score| -0.2910 -0.0938 Noise = High| -0.6292 2.9914 | 0.0000 0.0000 -2 Log likelihood: Initial Model = 118.6501 Final Model = 91.6682 Likelihood Ratio Statistic: Chi-Square Statistic = 26.9820 Degrees of Freedom = 4 Right-Tail Probability = 0.0000 ** Relative Risk Ratio ** | Relative | Risk Ratio Standard Error Lower 95% Upper 95% -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 2 Score| 0.9215 0.0330 0.8590 0.9885 Noise = High| 1.5402 1.1536 0.3548 6.6855 -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 3 Score| 0.8249 0.0415 0.7475 0.9104 Noise = High| 3.2579 3.0091 0.5330 19.9132 ** Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients ** | Period Period | = 2 Constant Score Noise = High = 3 Constant -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| 1.0000 -0.9548 0.0421 0.6820 Score| -0.9548 1.0000 -0.2573 -0.6379 Noise = High| 0.0421 -0.2573 1.0000 0.0434 -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 3 Constant| 0.6820 -0.6379 0.0434 1.0000 Score| -0.5699 0.5703 -0.1441 -0.9475 Noise = High| 0.0475 -0.1609 0.5618 0.1186 | Score Noise = High -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| -0.5699 0.0475 Score| 0.5703 -0.1609 Noise = High| -0.1441 0.5618 -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 3 Constant| -0.9475 0.1186 Score| 1.0000 -0.3417 Noise = High| -0.3417 1.0000 ** Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients ** | Period Period | = 2 Constant Score Noise = High = 3 Constant -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| 3.0375 -0.0596 0.0550 2.4918 Score| -0.0596 0.0013 -0.0069 -0.0479 Noise = High| 0.0550 -0.0069 0.5610 0.0682 -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 3 Constant| 2.4918 -0.0479 0.0682 4.3948 Score| -0.0500 0.0010 -0.0054 -0.0999 Noise = High| 0.0765 -0.0053 0.3886 0.2297 | Score Noise = High -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| -0.0500 0.0765 Score| 0.0010 -0.0053 Noise = High| -0.0054 0.3886 -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 3 Constant| -0.0999 0.2297 Score| 0.0025 -0.0159 Noise = High| -0.0159 0.8531 ** Classification by Group ** Observed\Predicted| 1 2 3 -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 1| 12 4 2 | 66.67% 22.22% 11.11% -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 2| 7 5 6 | 38.89% 27.78% 33.33% -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 3| 0 5 13 | 0.00% 27.78% 72.22% -------------------+--------------------------------------------- Correctly Classified = 55.56% ** Classification by Case ** | Estimated | Actual Group Misclassified Group Probability -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ 1| 1 * 2 0.4327 2| 1 1 0.4552 3| 1 1 0.6290 4| 2 * 3 0.4842 5| 2 * 1 0.4283 6| 2 * 1 0.5585 7| 3 3 0.8105 8| 3 3 0.5819 9| 3 * 2 0.4383 10| 1 * 3 0.6426 11| 1 * 3 0.4509 12| 1 * 2 0.4383 13| 2 * 3 0.7703 14| 2 * 3 0.5819 15| 2 2 0.4417 16| 3 3 0.8596 17| 3 3 0.7238 18| 3 3 0.4509 19| 1 1 0.6290 20| 1 1 0.7292 21| 1 1 0.8653 22| 2 * 1 0.5828 23| 2 * 1 0.4817 24| 2 * 1 0.8072 25| 3 3 0.4842 26| 3 * 2 0.4417 27| 3 * 2 0.4383 28| 1 1 0.5226 29| 1 1 0.4715 30| 1 1 0.7532 31| 2 * 3 0.7332 32| 2 * 3 0.4669 33| 2 * 1 0.5473 34| 3 3 0.8895 35| 3 3 0.7781 36| 3 3 0.4341 37| 1 * 2 0.4600 38| 1 * 2 0.4493 39| 1 1 0.6395 40| 2 * 3 0.5954 41| 2 2 0.4336 42| 2 2 0.4585 43| 3 3 0.7982 44| 3 3 0.6822 45| 3 * 2 0.4336 46| 1 1 0.6606 47| 1 1 0.7364 48| 1 1 0.9221 49| 2 2 0.4562 50| 2 2 0.4508 51| 2 * 1 0.6808 52| 3 3 0.5642 53| 3 3 0.6256 54| 3 * 2 0.4418 ** Probabilities ** | 1 2 3 -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 1| 0.2456 0.4327 0.3217 2| 0.4552 0.4170 0.1279 3| 0.6290 0.3251 0.0459 4| 0.1413 0.3745 0.4842 5| 0.4283 0.4258 0.1459 6| 0.5585 0.3689 0.0726 7| 0.0235 0.1661 0.8105 8| 0.0953 0.3229 0.5819 9| 0.2700 0.4383 0.2917 10| 0.0716 0.2858 0.6426 11| 0.1595 0.3896 0.4509 12| 0.3744 0.4383 0.1873 13| 0.0328 0.1969 0.7703 14| 0.0953 0.3229 0.5819 15| 0.2952 0.4417 0.2631 16| 0.0140 0.1264 0.8596 17| 0.0453 0.2309 0.7238 18| 0.1595 0.3896 0.4509 19| 0.6290 0.3251 0.0459 20| 0.7292 0.2504 0.0203 21| 0.8653 0.1312 0.0035 22| 0.5828 0.3547 0.0625 23| 0.4817 0.4066 0.1116 24| 0.8072 0.1842 0.0086 25| 0.1413 0.3745 0.4842 26| 0.2952 0.4417 0.2631 27| 0.3744 0.4383 0.1873 28| 0.5226 0.3972 0.0803 29| 0.4715 0.4221 0.1064 30| 0.7532 0.2329 0.0139 31| 0.0389 0.2280 0.7332 32| 0.1399 0.3932 0.4669 33| 0.5473 0.3833 0.0693 34| 0.0083 0.1021 0.8895 35| 0.0281 0.1939 0.7781 36| 0.1576 0.4083 0.4341 37| 0.3147 0.4600 0.2253 38| 0.3928 0.4493 0.1579 39| 0.6395 0.3230 0.0375 40| 0.0826 0.3220 0.5954 41| 0.1971 0.4336 0.3694 42| 0.3404 0.4585 0.2011 43| 0.0237 0.1781 0.7982 44| 0.0531 0.2647 0.6822 45| 0.1971 0.4336 0.3694 46| 0.6606 0.3074 0.0320 47| 0.7364 0.2471 0.0165 48| 0.9221 0.0771 0.0008 49| 0.2650 0.4562 0.2788 50| 0.2413 0.4508 0.3078 51| 0.6808 0.2920 0.0272 52| 0.0949 0.3409 0.5642 53| 0.0716 0.3029 0.6256 54| 0.4192 0.4418 0.1390 ** Index Values ** | 1 2 3 -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 1| 0.0000 0.5663 0.2698 2| 0.0000 -0.0877 -1.2698 3| 0.0000 -0.6600 -2.6169 4| 0.0000 0.9751 1.2320 5| 0.0000 -0.0059 -1.0773 6| 0.0000 -0.4147 -2.0396 7| 0.0000 1.9561 3.5414 8| 0.0000 1.2204 1.8094 9| 0.0000 0.4846 0.0774 10| 0.0000 1.3839 2.1943 11| 0.0000 0.8934 1.0396 12| 0.0000 0.1576 -0.6924 13| 0.0000 1.7926 3.1565 14| 0.0000 1.2204 1.8094 15| 0.0000 0.4028 -0.1151 16| 0.0000 2.2014 4.1187 17| 0.0000 1.6291 2.7716 18| 0.0000 0.8934 1.0396 19| 0.0000 -0.6600 -2.6169 20| 0.0000 -1.0687 -3.5791 21| 0.0000 -1.8863 -5.5036 22| 0.0000 -0.4965 -2.2320 23| 0.0000 -0.1694 -1.4622 24| 0.0000 -1.4775 -4.5414 25| 0.0000 0.9751 1.2320 26| 0.0000 0.4028 -0.1151 27| 0.0000 0.1576 -0.6924 28| 0.0000 -0.2743 -1.8735 29| 0.0000 -0.1108 -1.4886 30| 0.0000 -1.1736 -3.9904 31| 0.0000 1.7695 2.9376 32| 0.0000 1.0337 1.2056 33| 0.0000 -0.3561 -2.0660 34| 0.0000 2.5053 4.6697 35| 0.0000 1.9330 3.3225 36| 0.0000 0.9520 1.0132 37| 0.0000 0.3797 -0.3340 38| 0.0000 0.1344 -0.9113 39| 0.0000 -0.6831 -2.8358 40| 0.0000 1.3607 1.9754 41| 0.0000 0.7885 0.6283 42| 0.0000 0.2980 -0.5264 43| 0.0000 2.0148 3.5150 44| 0.0000 1.6060 2.5527 45| 0.0000 0.7885 0.6283 46| 0.0000 -0.7648 -3.0282 47| 0.0000 -1.0918 -3.7980 48| 0.0000 -2.4817 -7.0696 49| 0.0000 0.5432 0.0509 50| 0.0000 0.6250 0.2434 51| 0.0000 -0.8466 -3.2207 52| 0.0000 1.2790 1.7830 53| 0.0000 1.4425 2.1678 54| 0.0000 0.0527 -1.1037 **************************** Multinomial Regression **************************** ** Regression Results ** Valid Number of Cases: 54, 0 Omitted Dependent Variable: Period Base Category: 1 * omitted due to multicollinearity | Coefficient Standard Error Wald Statistic Significance -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| 3.8133 1.7428 4.7874 0.0287 Score| -0.0818 0.0358 5.2104 0.0225 Noise = High| 0.4319 0.7490 0.3325 0.5642 -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Noise = Low| * Score| -0.1924 0.0503 14.6346 0.0001 Noise = High| 1.1811 0.9236 1.6352 0.2010 | 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 | Lower 95% Upper 95% -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| 0.3974 7.2292 Score| -0.1519 -0.0116 Noise = High| -1.0362 1.8999 -------------------+------------------------------ Noise = Low| Score| -0.2910 -0.0938 Noise = High| -0.6292 2.9914 | 0.0000 0.0000 -2 Log likelihood: Initial Model = 118.6501 Final Model = 91.6682 Likelihood Ratio Statistic: Chi-Square Statistic = 26.9820 Degrees of Freedom = 4 Right-Tail Probability = 0.0000 ** Relative Risk Ratio ** | Relative | Risk Ratio Standard Error Lower 95% Upper 95% -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 2 Score| 0.9215 0.0330 0.8590 0.9885 Noise = High| 1.5402 1.1536 0.3548 6.6855 -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 3 Score| 0.8249 0.0415 0.7475 0.9104 Noise = High| 3.2579 3.0091 0.5330 19.9132 ** Correlation Matrix of Regression Coefficients ** | Period Period | = 2 Constant Score Noise = High = 3 Constant -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| 1.0000 -0.9548 0.0421 0.6820 Score| -0.9548 1.0000 -0.2573 -0.6379 Noise = High| 0.0421 -0.2573 1.0000 0.0434 -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 3 Constant| 0.6820 -0.6379 0.0434 1.0000 Score| -0.5699 0.5703 -0.1441 -0.9475 Noise = High| 0.0475 -0.1609 0.5618 0.1186 | Score Noise = High -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| -0.5699 0.0475 Score| 0.5703 -0.1609 Noise = High| -0.1441 0.5618 -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 3 Constant| -0.9475 0.1186 Score| 1.0000 -0.3417 Noise = High| -0.3417 1.0000 ** Covariance Matrix of Regression Coefficients ** | Period Period | = 2 Constant Score Noise = High = 3 Constant -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| 3.0375 -0.0596 0.0550 2.4918 Score| -0.0596 0.0013 -0.0069 -0.0479 Noise = High| 0.0550 -0.0069 0.5610 0.0682 -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ Period = 3 Constant| 2.4918 -0.0479 0.0682 4.3948 Score| -0.0500 0.0010 -0.0054 -0.0999 Noise = High| 0.0765 -0.0053 0.3886 0.2297 | Score Noise = High -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 2 Constant| -0.0500 0.0765 Score| 0.0010 -0.0053 Noise = High| -0.0054 0.3886 -------------------+------------------------------ Period = 3 Constant| -0.0999 0.2297 Score| 0.0025 -0.0159 Noise = High| -0.0159 0.8531 ** Classification by Group ** Observed\Predicted| 1 2 3 -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 1| 12 4 2 | 66.67% 22.22% 11.11% -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 2| 7 5 6 | 38.89% 27.78% 33.33% -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 3| 0 5 13 | 0.00% 27.78% 72.22% -------------------+--------------------------------------------- Correctly Classified = 55.56% ** Classification by Case ** | Estimated | Actual Group Misclassified Group Probability -------------------+------------------------------------------------------------ 1| 1 * 2 0.4327 2| 1 1 0.4552 3| 1 1 0.6290 4| 2 * 3 0.4842 5| 2 * 1 0.4283 6| 2 * 1 0.5585 7| 3 3 0.8105 8| 3 3 0.5819 9| 3 * 2 0.4383 10| 1 * 3 0.6426 11| 1 * 3 0.4509 12| 1 * 2 0.4383 13| 2 * 3 0.7703 14| 2 * 3 0.5819 15| 2 2 0.4417 16| 3 3 0.8596 17| 3 3 0.7238 18| 3 3 0.4509 19| 1 1 0.6290 20| 1 1 0.7292 21| 1 1 0.8653 22| 2 * 1 0.5828 23| 2 * 1 0.4817 24| 2 * 1 0.8072 25| 3 3 0.4842 26| 3 * 2 0.4417 27| 3 * 2 0.4383 28| 1 1 0.5226 29| 1 1 0.4715 30| 1 1 0.7532 31| 2 * 3 0.7332 32| 2 * 3 0.4669 33| 2 * 1 0.5473 34| 3 3 0.8895 35| 3 3 0.7781 36| 3 3 0.4341 37| 1 * 2 0.4600 38| 1 * 2 0.4493 39| 1 1 0.6395 40| 2 * 3 0.5954 41| 2 2 0.4336 42| 2 2 0.4585 43| 3 3 0.7982 44| 3 3 0.6822 45| 3 * 2 0.4336 46| 1 1 0.6606 47| 1 1 0.7364 48| 1 1 0.9221 49| 2 2 0.4562 50| 2 2 0.4508 51| 2 * 1 0.6808 52| 3 3 0.5642 53| 3 3 0.6256 54| 3 * 2 0.4418 ** Probabilities ** | 1 2 3 -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 1| 0.2456 0.4327 0.3217 2| 0.4552 0.4170 0.1279 3| 0.6290 0.3251 0.0459 4| 0.1413 0.3745 0.4842 5| 0.4283 0.4258 0.1459 6| 0.5585 0.3689 0.0726 7| 0.0235 0.1661 0.8105 8| 0.0953 0.3229 0.5819 9| 0.2700 0.4383 0.2917 10| 0.0716 0.2858 0.6426 11| 0.1595 0.3896 0.4509 12| 0.3744 0.4383 0.1873 13| 0.0328 0.1969 0.7703 14| 0.0953 0.3229 0.5819 15| 0.2952 0.4417 0.2631 16| 0.0140 0.1264 0.8596 17| 0.0453 0.2309 0.7238 18| 0.1595 0.3896 0.4509 19| 0.6290 0.3251 0.0459 20| 0.7292 0.2504 0.0203 21| 0.8653 0.1312 0.0035 22| 0.5828 0.3547 0.0625 23| 0.4817 0.4066 0.1116 24| 0.8072 0.1842 0.0086 25| 0.1413 0.3745 0.4842 26| 0.2952 0.4417 0.2631 27| 0.3744 0.4383 0.1873 28| 0.5226 0.3972 0.0803 29| 0.4715 0.4221 0.1064 30| 0.7532 0.2329 0.0139 31| 0.0389 0.2280 0.7332 32| 0.1399 0.3932 0.4669 33| 0.5473 0.3833 0.0693 34| 0.0083 0.1021 0.8895 35| 0.0281 0.1939 0.7781 36| 0.1576 0.4083 0.4341 37| 0.3147 0.4600 0.2253 38| 0.3928 0.4493 0.1579 39| 0.6395 0.3230 0.0375 40| 0.0826 0.3220 0.5954 41| 0.1971 0.4336 0.3694 42| 0.3404 0.4585 0.2011 43| 0.0237 0.1781 0.7982 44| 0.0531 0.2647 0.6822 45| 0.1971 0.4336 0.3694 46| 0.6606 0.3074 0.0320 47| 0.7364 0.2471 0.0165 48| 0.9221 0.0771 0.0008 49| 0.2650 0.4562 0.2788 50| 0.2413 0.4508 0.3078 51| 0.6808 0.2920 0.0272 52| 0.0949 0.3409 0.5642 53| 0.0716 0.3029 0.6256 54| 0.4192 0.4418 0.1390 ** Index Values ** | 1 2 3 -------------------+--------------------------------------------- 1| 0.0000 0.5663 0.2698 2| 0.0000 -0.0877 -1.2698 3| 0.0000 -0.6600 -2.6169 4| 0.0000 0.9751 1.2320 5| 0.0000 -0.0059 -1.0773 6| 0.0000 -0.4147 -2.0396 7| 0.0000 1.9561 3.5414 8| 0.0000 1.2204 1.8094 9| 0.0000 0.4846 0.0774 10| 0.0000 1.3839 2.1943 11| 0.0000 0.8934 1.0396 12| 0.0000 0.1576 -0.6924 13| 0.0000 1.7926 3.1565 14| 0.0000 1.2204 1.8094 15| 0.0000 0.4028 -0.1151 16| 0.0000 2.2014 4.1187 17| 0.0000 1.6291 2.7716 18| 0.0000 0.8934 1.0396 19| 0.0000 -0.6600 -2.6169 20| 0.0000 -1.0687 -3.5791 21| 0.0000 -1.8863 -5.5036 22| 0.0000 -0.4965 -2.2320 23| 0.0000 -0.1694 -1.4622 24| 0.0000 -1.4775 -4.5414 25| 0.0000 0.9751 1.2320 26| 0.0000 0.4028 -0.1151 27| 0.0000 0.1576 -0.6924 28| 0.0000 -0.2743 -1.8735 29| 0.0000 -0.1108 -1.4886 30| 0.0000 -1.1736 -3.9904 31| 0.0000 1.7695 2.9376 32| 0.0000 1.0337 1.2056 33| 0.0000 -0.3561 -2.0660 34| 0.0000 2.5053 4.6697 35| 0.0000 1.9330 3.3225 36| 0.0000 0.9520 1.0132 37| 0.0000 0.3797 -0.3340 38| 0.0000 0.1344 -0.9113 39| 0.0000 -0.6831 -2.8358 40| 0.0000 1.3607 1.9754 41| 0.0000 0.7885 0.6283 42| 0.0000 0.2980 -0.5264 43| 0.0000 2.0148 3.5150 44| 0.0000 1.6060 2.5527 45| 0.0000 0.7885 0.6283 46| 0.0000 -0.7648 -3.0282 47| 0.0000 -1.0918 -3.7980 48| 0.0000 -2.4817 -7.0696 49| 0.0000 0.5432 0.0509 50| 0.0000 0.6250 0.2434 51| 0.0000 -0.8466 -3.2207 52| 0.0000 1.2790 1.7830 53| 0.0000 1.4425 2.1678 54| 0.0000 0.0527 -1.1037